Nov 22, 2022
Okay, it is finally time for the new puzzler... But it is not a new puzzler. This is the recycled puzzler. In fact, since we gave everyone an extra week, this is the recycled, recycled puzzler. This one was extended by a week, due to the holiday and the amount of interest we have had in this very popular puzzler.
Here's a recap.
The famous Monty Hall, "Let's Make a Deal" Puzzler.
Monty Hall would present people with 3 doors. You get to pick door #1, door #2, or door #3. One of the doors had a wonderful prize behind it, like a car or a vacation or something. The other two had crummy prizes.
So, when you picked a door, you had a 1 in 3 chance of getting the great prize and a 2 in 3 chance of winning a crummy prize. A life supply of scotch tape, or 600 boxes of Eskimo pies, or something like that.
And here is the puzzle.
Monty Hall says, "Pick a door." And so you pick door #1. And he asks if you'd like to switch now. And you say no because it wouldn't matter. At this point, your chances are still 1 in 3, no matter what.
Then he says, "I'm going to show you one of the two doors that you did not pick." So he shows you what is behind door #2. And it is a crummy prize. All Eskimo pies.
Then Monty says, "You picked door #1, but you don't know what's behind it. I've shown you what's behind door #2, and it is Eskimo pies for days... Would you like to switch to door #3?"
So this is the puzzler that is worth two weeks of responses. Because now that you know what is behind door #2, your chances are better than 1 in 3. So, do you stay where you are, with door #1, or do you take the chance and switch to door #3?
What do you do, and why?
It is finally time to answer the famous Monty Hall puzzler!
Due to the holiday and how many responses we got from this puzzler, we extended it for two weeks, so more people would have a chance to answer.
You all remember this one by now. Monty Hall. Let's Make a Deal. Doors 1, 2, and 3... You select doors without knowing what is behind them. One of the doors has a good prize behind it, the others have crummy prizes. Monty says, "You picked door #1, but you don't know what's behind it. I've shown you what's behind door #2, and it is a bunch of stale Eskimo pies... Would you like to switch to door #3?"
So the puzzler was, what do you do, and why?
Now we have gotten hundreds of responses. Hundreds of people say one answer, and hundreds of people say the other answer. We have so many intelligent, educated people who guessed the wrong answer!
The answer is, you should switch.
And here is why. When you pick door #1, you have a 50/50 chance of getting a good door, if you switch. Monty Hall is going to show you the crummy door. Right? So if you have a chance to switch to the other door, you know there is a good chance that it will be a good one. So statistically, if you do this enough times, by switching doors, you up the chance of getting a good outcome. We actually had some listeners do computer simulations to test this, and they proved that you will win twice as much if you switch.
And there you have it.
